Case study · Climate Tech
Modeling $6.5M of grants alongside a $12M Series A
A climate tech hardware company modeled $6.5M of grants and a $12M Series A as one plan, with gross margin modeled to rise from 12% to 38% by 2028.
Series A, led by a climate fund
Modeled gross margin by 2028
Modeled gross margin, %
Client
Climate tech hardware · $4M revenue
Revenue
$2–5M
Engagement
6 months
The company built modular thermal storage units for industrial sites, had about $4M in revenue from early deployments and was preparing a Series A. At the same time it had two grant applications under review and an equipment lender offering to finance its first production line.
Each funding source lived in its own spreadsheet. The grant budgets used different cost categories from the books, the lender’s model assumed production volumes the venture model did not, and nobody could say what runway looked like if the grants arrived late or only in part. Grant funds could only be spent on approved costs, but the cash balance treated every dollar the same.
Investors raised the harder question. Gross margin on current units was about 12%, and the path to healthy margins depended on volume assumptions nobody had written down.
Leah Okonjo built the model, and Daniel Rowe supported the Series A preparation.
One model for every source of cash. Venture equity, both grants, the equipment loan and customer deposits sat in one monthly model, with restricted and unrestricted cash tracked separately.
Hardware unit economics. Unit cost built from the bill of materials, supplier quotes at three volume levels and a cost-down curve tied to cumulative production. Every assumption had a source investors could check.
Grant timing and cost share. Grant budgets were mapped to the chart of accounts, and reimbursement lags of 60–90 days went into the cash forecast.
Scenarios. Grants awarded on time, late or at half value, each against two Series A sizes, so the board could see runway in every combination.
Raise support. A data room, metrics pages and answers to financial diligence during the round.
The company’s counsel reviewed grant eligibility and compliance terms and the equipment loan agreement. Tax credit questions stayed with its tax advisors.
The company secured $6.5M of non-dilutive grant funding and closed a $12M Series A led by a climate-focused fund. Investors worked from the same model the grant reviewers saw, and the co-founder noticed they asked fewer questions about the money than about the product.
The model shows gross margin rising from 12% in 2024 to 38% by 2028 as volumes grow and the cost-down curve plays out. These are modeled figures, not results, and they depend on production volumes and supplier pricing.
Grant spend and reimbursements are now tracked monthly, so reports come from the close rather than a scramble before each deadline.
Figures are from a demo engagement and are illustrative. Past results do not predict future outcomes.
Noor H.
Co-founder, climate tech hardware startup
Client, people and figures are fictional demo content. Past results do not predict future outcomes. Disclaimer
Free intro call · 30 minutes
Want numbers like these?
Tell us where things stand today. We’ll tell you what we’d do first.
